Demand for Oil Products in Sub-Sahara Grows

Sub-Saharan Africa’s oil products demand grew by 6% in 2011, says CITAC
New data published by downstream African oil specialists CITAC shows a sustained increase in Sub-Saharan African demand in 2011, particularly in East and Southern Africa. Accurate data on Africa’s frequently opaque oil industry is hard to come by, leading most analysts to plug approximations into their model. CITAC’s 2011 data, however, break out the continent at country and product level.
In 2011 oil demand in Sub-Saharan Africa grew by 6.0% – one percentage point higher than CITAC forecast a year ago. Demand in East and Southern Africa rose by 3.6%, which is a slow growth rate compared to West and Central Africa, but is the region’s largest demand increase since 2007. The pick up in demand growth pace resulted from economic growth boosted by increased industrial and oil exploration activities in some countries in the region. South Africa’s economic recovery also contributed to a moderate demand growth of 1.6%.
Growth in West and Central Africa slowed down compared to the 15% increase in 2010, but still grew by 8.6%. Demand growth in this region is supported by subsidised product prices in the biggest regional markets Nigeria and Angola. As in the previous year, much of the growth was due to the 17% y/y growth inNigerian gasoline demand, supported, according to CITAC, by the continuing high subsidies on gasoline. The official pump price remained constant, at 65 Naira/litre throughout 2011 but was increased at the beginning of 2012 to 97 Naira. Despite the increase, the price remains significantly lower than the true market price.
CITAC’s just published 2012 Annual Review provides precise demand, import, export and refinery output data for Sub-Saharan Africa and from this base CITAC presents forecasts which show demand rising from 81.9mn mt (1.8mn b/d) in 2011 to 116.3mn mt (2.5mn b/d) in 2020 – marking a upward revision of 0.4mn mt on their previous year’s forecast. CITAC predict that Sub-Saharan Africa’s demand growth to 2020 is expected to average 4.2%/yr – far outstripping global demand growth (which is unlikely to surpass 1%/yr). CITAC forecasts an annual average growth rate of 4.2% for WCA and 3.8% for ESA.
For further details, please contact Elitsa Georgieva, Consultancy Services Manager, CITAC Africa Ltd:, telephone: +44 20 7343 0014.