EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to stabilize

EIA forecasts in the June release of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that global Brent crude oil prices will stabilize in mid-2021 and average about $68 per barrel (b) in the third quarter before decreasing to an average of $60/b in 2022. Brent crude oil prices averaged $68/b in May, a 25% increase from January’s average.

“In the coming months, we expect global oil production to catch up with the increases we’ve seen in demand in 2021,” said EIA Acting Administrator Stephen Nalley. “U.S. and global oil producers are increasing their production, which should help moderate oil prices that have increased significantly as global economic concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic have begun to ease.”

We expect global petroleum and liquid fuels consumption to grow by 6% in 2021, totaling 97.7 million barrels per day (b/d), and increase a further 4% in 2022, reaching 101.3 million b/d. In response to this increase in global demand, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 11.8 million b/d in 2022, up 4% from 2020. We expect OPEC production to reach 28.7 million b/d in 2022, an increase of 12% over 2020.

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