EIA expects oil prices to increase despite concerns over economic growth and petroleum demand
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent crude oil prices will return to above $80 per barrel this month, after dipping to $73 per barrel on September 6. In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $82 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year.
Market concerns over economic growth and oil demand have increased, but EIA expects that global oil reserves will begin to decline as OPEC+ production cuts result in global oil consumption exceeding global oil production. OPEC+ member countries announced last week that they will be delaying production increases until December. Those increases were initially set to begin next month.
“We expect that oil prices will be pushed upward in the coming weeks and months as global oil consumption outpaces production,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “There are uncertainties in the market, including demand growth in China and supply disruptions in the Middle East, that could push prices higher or lower in the short term.”
Other highlights from the September STEO include:
Natural gas. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas prices to remain relatively flat through the rest of 2024 before rising in 2025. EIA forecasts that U.S. production of natural gas will reach nearly 105 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, surpassing the prior domestic production record set in 2023. Prices increase in EIA’s forecast as U.S. liquefied natural gas exports rise by more than 2 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, putting stress on U.S. natural gas storage levels. Propane prices. EIA has added a new set of forecasts to STEO: monthly retail propane price forecasts by U.S. region. EIA expects the U.S. average retail propane price for the upcoming heating season to average $2.50 per gallon, the same average price as last winter. Regional prices range from an average of about $3.35 per gallon on the East Coast to about $2.00 per gallon in the Midwest this winter, both of which are similar to regional prices last winter.
Biofuels consumption. EIA has also added several new series of forecasts that better capture how biofuels are being consumed within overall U.S. demand for distillate fuels. EIA expects that although total distillate fuel oil consumption will fall slightly this year to an average of 4.1 million barrels per day, biofuels will account for 9% of that consumption, up from 8% last year and 5% in 2022. Read More
