EIA expects stable crude oil prices in 2024 and 2025
London, 10 January 2024, (Oilandgaspress): – EIA forecast average annual crude oil prices in 2024 and 2025 will remain near their 2023 average because we expect that global supply and demand for petroleum liquids will be relatively balanced over the next two years. We expect the Brent crude oil price will average $82 per barrel (b) in 2024 and $79/b in 2025, compared with its 2023 average of $82/b. We expect that the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will be slightly lower but generally follow the same path.
In the first quarter of 2024 (1Q24), EIA expect crude oil prices to rise somewhat, driven by OPEC+ production cuts leading to global stock draws of 810,000 barrels per day (b/d). As a result of the stock draws, we forecast the price of Brent will increase from $78/b in December 2023 to $85/b in March 2024. We expect that crude oil prices will gradually decrease after April 2024 with minor stock builds because global production increases more than consumption. We forecast stocks will increase by 110,000 b/d from 2Q24 through 4Q24 and by 280,000 b/d in 2025.
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