February 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook
London, February 11, 2025, (Oilandgaspress) –––Natural gas prices: Cold weather at the end of January increased demand for space heating and contributed to a 12% increase in U.S. natural gas consumption over the previous five-year average for the month. Higher natural gas consumption led to above-average inventory withdrawals, and EIA now expects the benchmark Henry Hub spot price to average $3.80 per million British thermal units in 2025, about 20% higher than previously forecast.
• Crude oil production and prices: EIA continues to expect growth in global oil production and significant decreases in crude oil prices through 2026. EIA completed its January forecasts before additional sanctions against Russia’s oil and shipping sectors were announced, which created additional uncertainty in outlooks for crude oil supply. EIA does not expect the sanctions to have significant impact on global oil production or prices, although trade flows could be affected.
• U.S. refinery operations: EIA expects U.S. production of refined petroleum products to decrease by about 190,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by 180,000 barrels per day in 2026 as two refineries close operations. LyondellBasell began closing its Houston refinery on January 27 and Phillips 66 plans to close its Los Angeles refinery at the end of the year. EIA expects that in 2026, the United States will begin importing more gasoline and jet fuel than it exports while remaining a net exporter of distillate fuel oil.
• Residential electricity prices: EIA forecasts that retail electricity prices for the U.S. residential sector will grow by 2% in 2025, which would be the smallest annual increase in residential electricity prices since 2020. The modest price increase, similar to the expected rate of inflation growth, reflects relatively low natural gas prices over the past year offset by continuing expenses for improvements in grid infrastructure.
• U.S. coal exports: EIA expects the United States to export about 100 million short tons of coal in both 2025 and 2026, about 2% less than EIA’s January forecast. EIA expects that China’s tariffs against the United States will affect U.S. coal exports, but exporters are likely to find customers in other markets, limiting the tariff’s impact.
| Overview | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Brent crude oil (dollars per barrel) | 82 | 81 | 74 | 66 |
| Gasoline retail price (dollars per gallon) | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 12.9 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 13.7 |
| Natural gas spot price (dollars per million BTU) | 2.50 | 2.20 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| U.S. LNG exports (billion cubic feet per day) | 12 | 12 | 14 | 16 |
| Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report. | ||||
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