Japan’s crude imports in structural decline
London, April 18, 2025, (Oilandgaspress) –––– Japan’s crude imports typically fall in the second quarter as refineries lower crude throughput. Apart from seasonal factors, Japan’s export-oriented economy is likely to face pressure from the slowdown in global trade. This is due to 10% base tariffs imposed by the United States on imports from Japan, and potential economic slowdown in China, a major trading partner for Japan. Demand for diesel will fall when industrial activities weaken and so will demand for marine gasoil and fuel oil should shipping activities weaken. This will pressure domestic refining margins and crude throughput. As such, crude arrivals into Japan are likely to see further downside for the rest of the year compared to 2024 figures.
Japan mainly imports crude from the Middle East as the refining system is configured to run sour crude. The country’s reliance on crude from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has increased over the years while overall crude arrivals fell. As shown from the chart below, declining imports of crude into Japan from 2022 were due to lower arrivals from Russia, Kuwait, Qatar and other countries. Meanwhile, imports of crude from Saudi Arabia and the UAE fell by a smaller extent during the same period, despite higher output cuts from these countries in H2 2023 and 2024 compared to other OPEC+ members.
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