NPCC’s Winter Reliability Assessment Indicates Adequate Electricity Supplies Under Forecasted Conditions
NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Northeast Power Coordinating Council’s (NPCC’s) annual winter reliability assessment forecasts the northeast region will have an adequate supply of electricity this winter to meet projected peak demand under a variety of forecasted weather conditions.
NPCC projects the regional forecast coincident peak demand of 112,065 MW (the simultaneous peak demand for the entire region) is forecast to occur the week of January 26, 2025. This demand is approximately 150 mega-watts (MW) lower than last winter’s forecast. Approximately 165,000 MW of total capacity is projected to be in place to meet the forecasted electricity demand.
After accounting for transmission constraints, NPCC’s assessment estimates the region’s spare operable capacity under forecasted conditions during the winter period will be substantial, with capacity over and above reserve requirements, ranging from approximately 16,369 to 29,925 MW.
“NPCC’s assessment indicates adequate capacity margins and transmission capability to meet the region’s peak demand and required operating reserves under forecasted conditions this winter,” said Charles Dickerson, President and Chief Executive Officer of NPCC. “The assessment found that operating procedures are sufficient to provide reliability if reduced resources, higher than expected demands, and extreme weather conditions materialize.”
Recent reports have underscored the impacts that extreme weather events may have on regional reliability. Because natural gas continues to be the predominant fuel source in New England to produce electricity, ISO New England continues to closely monitor factors affecting the delivery of natural gas. Winter reliability programs are in place to address regional energy security risks if prolonged extreme weather occurs.
New York, Ontario, and Québec forecast adequate resources to meet winter demand. The Maritimes show a limited likelihood of using their operating procedures designed to mitigate resource shortages; the need is primarily driven by peak demand growth and assumed resource unavailability.
“A number of major geomagnetic storms is anticipated over the winter period,” added Phil Fedora, NPCC’s Chief Engineer and Vice President of Reliability Services. “Both NERC and NPCC have standards and procedures to mitigate any associated impacts. Continued situational awareness and coordination of communications among system operators play a key role in mitigating risks and maintaining reliability.”
NPCC’s reliability assessment considered a wide range of scenarios through the application of probabilistic methods, including weather conditions derived from over 40 years of data, unexpected generating plant outages, transmission constraints between and within areas, delays in expected in-service dates of planned facilities, the potential for some natural gas generators to be temporarily unavailable during cold or extreme winter conditions, and shifts in consumer electricity demand.
NPCC’s Reliability Assessment for Winter 2024-2025 is available at:
https://www.npcc.org/resources?category=Seasonal+Assessment
About NPCC
NPCC is one of six Regional Entities located throughout the United States, Canada, and portions of Mexico. NPCC’s geographic area includes the state of New York, the six New England states, Ontario, Québec, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Overall, NPCC covers an area of nearly 1.2 million square miles, populated by more than 56 million people.
NPCC is responsible for promoting and enhancing the reliability of the international, interconnected bulk power system in Northeastern North America. NPCC carries out its mission through: (i) the development of regional reliability standards and compliance assessment and enforcement of continent-wide and regional reliability standards, (ii) coordination of system planning, design and operations, and assessment of reliability, and (iii) the establishment of regionally specific criteria and monitoring and enforcement of compliance with such criteria.
Contacts
Jacqulyn Priestly, 202-251-9703
