Offshore Wind Is Gaining Momentum In Japan

Clarksons Research has released onto its Renewables Intelligence Network (RIN) platform a new report profiling Japan’s offshore wind sector, including an update on recent policy changes, coverage of the upcoming round of offshore wind auctions and a capacity forecast out to 2030. Reviewing the data, Steve Gordon, Managing Director of Clarksons Research commented:

• We project Japan’s embryonic offshore wind sector will grow to over 6 GW of active capacity and involve ~600 turbines by 2030 (from 190 MW and 59 turbines today), supported by ongoing auctions of seabed acreage and important streamlining of the permitting process.
• While the development of the Japanese wind market has stalled in recent years, it now appears to be gaining momentum. The government has recently revised its guidelines for the second round of offshore wind auctions with the aim of accelerating project development and reducing the focus on pricing.
• The second round of auctions will see the seabed rights to 1.8 GW of capacity awarded to developers later this year. 700 MW will be awarded off Niigata, with 692 MW set to be awarded of Akita and 424 MW off Nagasaki.
• Active capacity in Japan currently stands at 190 MW following the commissioning of the country’s first commercial-scale offshore wind projects in Dec-22 and Jan-23. 344 MW is currently under construction off Japan and set to come online by end-2025, while an additional 1.9 GW has secured offtake agreements.
• Capacity growth in Japan looks set to be led by local utilities and developers such as TEPCO (2.1 GW of proposed capacity) and Mitsubishi (1.8 GW of potential capacity), as well as international developers such as RWE (1.2 GW of proposed capacity).
• Floating foundations will likely be required in parts of Japan’s coastal seas due to deep waters. At present, only 2 floating turbines are active off Japan, while 8 turbines are set to be installed on TODA’s spar floater foundations at the 16.8 MW Goto wind farm.
• In 2022, two Wind Turbine Installation Vessels (WTIVs) were deployed off Japan, including the “Seajacks Zaratan” which installed turbines at the Akita and Noshiro Port windfarms. In early 2023, Shimizu Corporation’s newbuild WTIV “Blue Wind” was delivered from JMU (Kure) shipyard, and a further two Japanese-owned WTIVs are currently under construction. In addition, DEME plans to operate its “Sea Challenger” WTIV under the Japanese flag from 2025.
• Under its 6th Strategic Energy Plan, Japan is aiming for wind power (onshore and offshore) to account for 5% of its energy mix by 2030 (it is ~1% today). To achieve this, the government is targeting at least 5.7 GW of offshore wind capacity to be online by 2030. In addition, the government aims to approve 10 GW by 2030 and 30-45 GW by 2040.
• On a global level, our long-term scenarios suggest offshore wind will play a vital role in the Energy Transition, potentially providing between 7% and 9% of global energy supply by 2050 (it is just 0.4% today; see the Clarksons Research Energy Transition Model for more details). Globally, our projections suggest ~250 GW of active capacity and 30,000 active turbines by 2030 (today there is 61 GW and 12,223 turbines).