bp explores key trends surrounding energy transition
bp Energy Outlook explores the key trends and uncertainties surrounding the energy transition out to 2050. The three main scenarios considered in the Outlook – Net Zero, Accelerated, and New Momentum – have been updated to take account of two major developments over the past year: the Russia-Ukraine war and the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US.
The Outlook’s three main scenarios are designed to explore the range of possible outcomes for the global energy system over the next 30 years. Understanding this range of uncertainty helps bp to shape a strategy which is resilient to the different speeds and ways in which the energy system may transition.
Three scenarios:Accelerated and Net Zero explore how different elements of the energy system might change in pathways that achieve substantial reductions in carbon emissions by 2050 by around 75% in Accelerated and over 95% in Net Zero. Both scenarios assume a significant tightening in climate policies globally. Net Zero also includes a shift in societal behaviour and preferences to further support gains in energy efficiency and the adoption of low-carbon energy.
New Momentum is designed to reflect the current broad trajectory of the world’s energy system. In doing so, it places weight on the marked increase in government ambitions and pledges for decarbonisation that have been seen in recent years. In this scenario, global carbon emissions peak in the 2020s and by around 2050 are around 30% below 2019 levels.
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