Oil demand forecast to 2030
London, June 24 2024 , (Oilandgaspress) ––Based on today’s market conditions and policies, global oil demand will level off at around 106 mb/d towards the end of the decade amid the accelerating transition to clean energy technologies. Surging EV sales and continued efficiency improvements of vehicles, and the substitution of oil with renewables or gas in the power sector, will significantly curb oil use in road transport and electricity generation.
Total oil demand is nevertheless forecast to rise by 3.2 mb/d between 2023 and 2030, supported by increased use of jet fuel and feedstocks from the booming petrochemical sector. Indeed, consumption of naphtha, liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and ethane will climb by 3.7 mb/d over the forecast period, fuelled also by growth in LPG use for clean cooking. Growth will be dominated by Asian economies, especially India and China, as oil demand’s pivot to emerging markets continues.
Total NGLs and condensates are projected to rise by 2.7 mb/d from 2023 to 2030. By comparison, crude oil production capacity is forecast to increase by 2.6 mb/d over the same period, while biofuels account for 620 kb/d of the 6 mb/d total.
Non-OPEC+ producers will continue to lead the capacity build, accounting for 4.6 mb/d, or 76% of the net increase. The United States alone makes up 2.1 mb/d of the non-OPEC+ gains, while Brazil, Guyana, Canada and Argentina contribute a further 2.7 mb/d. As the sanctioned project queue fizzles out towards the end of our forecast, growth stalls in the United States and Canada while Brazil and Guyana shift into decline based on current plans. However, should companies swiftly approve additional projects that are already on the drawing board, an incremental 1.3 mb/d of non‑OPEC+ capacity could become operational by 2030.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iraq lead a 1.4 mb/d rise in OPEC+ oil capacity as African and Asian members post declines. The UAE and Iraq are raising crude oil capacity while Saudi Arabia is poised for a significant increase NGL and condensates supply. Capacity in Russia is expected to show only a marginal decline despite international sanctions as the giant Vostok project ramps up, helping to offset losses at mature oil fields.
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