OPEC monthly oil market report
London, April 14, 2025, (Oilandgaspress) –––– OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast citing the impact of data received for the first quarter and trade tariffs announced by the U.S., and also reduced its global economic growth forecasts for this year and next.
Oil Market Highlights
Crude Oil Price Movements
In March, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value declined by $2.81, or 3.7%, m-o-m, to average $74.00/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $3.48, or 4.6%, m-o-m, to average $71.47/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $3.27, or 4.6%, m-o-m, to average $67.94/b. The GME Oman front-month contract fell by $4.78, or 6.2%, m-o-m, to average $72.50/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first-month spread narrowed by 21¢, m-o-m, to average $3.53/b. The forward curve of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI strengthened in March, m-o-m, and the nearest-month time spreads moved into stronger backwardation. This reflects traders’ optimism about the supply/demand balance outlook. However, the GME Oman and Dubai price structures flattened compared to January and February levels, but the nearest time spreads remained in firm backwardation. Speculative selling in the oil futures market eased in March, as hedge funds and other money managers rebuilt part of their bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI, after major selloffs seen in the previous month.
World Economy
The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, the near-term trajectory is now subject to higher uncertainty given the recent tariff-related dynamics. Consequently, the global economic growth forecasts are revised down slightly to 3.0% for 2025, and to 3.1% for 2026. US economic growth forecasts are revised down to 2.1% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026. Japan’s economic growth forecasts are revised down slightly to 1% for 2025 and to 0.9% for 2026. The Eurozone’s economic growth forecast for 2025 is lowered marginally to 0.8% but remains at 1.1% for 2026. China’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are revised down slightly to 4.6% and 4.5%, respectively. India’s economic growth forecast for 2025 is lowered slightly to 6.3% for 2025 but remains at 6.5% for 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Russia’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively.
World Oil Demand
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y. This minor adjustment is mainly due to received data for 1Q25 and the expected impact on oil demand given recently announced US tariffs. In the OECD, oil demand is expected to grow by 0.04 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to expand by almost 1.25 mb/d in 2025. The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 is revised down slightly to about 1.3 mb/d. The OECD is expected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026.
World Oil Supply
Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and Argentina. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 also revised down slightly to about 0.9 mb/d, with the US, Brazil, Canada and Argentina as the key drivers. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.5 mb/d. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC dropped by 37 tb/d in March, m-o-m, averaging about 41.02 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins dropped in all reported trading hubs. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), all product crack spreads declined except for gasoline as some refining capacities returned online from maintenance, leading to higher product availability. In Rotterdam, product markets weakened across the board despite a decline in total product ARA inventories. This downturn was the most pronounced in the gasoil margin performance amid weaker fundamentals. In Singapore, higher product arrivals from the Middle East along with ample regional product supplies, lower-than-expected regional gasoline demand and firm jet fuel exports from China weighed on Asian margins.
The downward trend of oil prices accelerated in the first half of March following the US decision to impose new tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. These tariffs heightened fears of a broader trade war, raising concerns about its potential repercussions on global economic growth and energy demand. The subsequent announcement of the delay in imposing tariffs on some imports from Canada and Mexico, including energy, alleviated concerns about an oil supply disruption, further reducing the supply risk premium. Additionally, a large build in US crude stocks contributed to the price decline. However, a weaker US dollar provided some support to oil futures prices, as a depreciating dollar typically makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially boosting demand. Furthermore, data from the EIA showed a decline in US gasoline and middle distillate stocks despite increased refinery throughputs, which improved the demand outlook.
Crude oil futures rebounded in the second half of the month, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and new US sanctions on shipping entities and a Chinese refinery, which raised supply concerns. Traders also reacted to US tariff threats that could impact oil supply in Eastern Europe and Latin America.
Market sentiment improved further, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data and positive signals from China, including a rise in the country’s manufacturing PMI in February and March. Additionally, EIA data showed US crude production hit an 11-month low in January, providing additional support to oil futures. Speculative buying, particularly in ICE Brent, further fuelled the rally.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” OPEC said in the report.
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