The Road to 2030 by Auto Trader

The Road to 2030 Report tracks the progress of electric vehicle (EV) adoption as the UK moves closer to the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales.

Using Auto Trader data and insights, the report answers questions that are vital to understanding the electric vehicle market and how the industry and policymakers can drive mass adoption.

The latest edition of the Report focuses on the impact of increased supply on used electric car values, the difference between public and private charging costs, and how demand for new electric vans has fallen. The number of new electric cars registered in the UK has continued to rise into the start of 2023 with the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reporting 76,233 new battery electric car sales in the first quarter, up 18.8% on last year’s levels.

Strong demand for EVs from businesses and fleet operators is driving the increase in the number sold as low taxation rates make the switch more attractive – especially through salary sacrifice schemes.

Whilst it’s been an encouraging start to the year in absolute terms, the rate of growth will need to accelerate as the new car market recovers from long-lasting supply constraints and electric’s market penetration begins to flatten at around 16.5% (based on a 12-month rolling average until March 2023).With consideration for new electric cars falling, people are instead looking at new petrol cars.

In the first quarter of 2023, 52% of new cars looked at on Auto Trader were petrol, up from 47% the year prior. This switch back to petrol follows continuous declines in its market share since the start of 2020. Three new electric models launched in the UK market in the first quarter: the Jeep Avenger, an SUV with a starting recommended retail price of £35k; the BYD Atto 3, with a base RRP of just over £36k; and the Rolls Royce Spectre, a luxury coupe with a starting price of over £320k.

The introduction of these models has taken the total number of electric models on sale in the UK to 77.

Whilst the gap to petrol and diesel models has narrowed, there are still four times fewer EV models available to buy in the UK. This gap should close throughout 2023 as we see additional electric models enter the market.

With only three new electric models launching in the UK in the first quarter of 2023 – one of which being priced at over £320k – the number of affordable EVs hasn’t improved.

In fact, the number of new electric models available to buy for under £30k has fallen from 12 (at the end of 2022) to 11 (at the end of March). As a result, the gap to affordable internal combustion engine (ICE) cars- of which there are 98 available for under £30k – has widened from 8x fewer to 9x fewer.

This lack of affordable options will exacerbate the preconception held by many consumers that EVs are the preserve of the wealthy, but there are promising signs of intent from the established players to get into the lower priced categories of EV including Volkswagen with the ID.1 and Tesla with the Model 2.

Supply of used electric cars increased dramatically at the end of 2022 as cars purchased on three and four year agreements returned to the market for the first time in substantial volume. By October, supply was ahead of demand for the first time on record.

In the first quarter of 2023, supply of used EVs has continued to increase with stock levels rising 270% year-on-year. The greater choice and availability in the second-hand market has also stimulated further demand, with levels in March increasing 23% year-on-year.

The surge in supply in the retail market has dipped slightly at the start of April as retailers pause further sourcing of used EVs in favour of faster selling ICE vehicles. Despite this, supply remains ahead of demand. Read More