Europe at the mercy of autocrats and oil cartels.

30 Mar Europe at the mercy of autocrats and oil cartels.

(Oilandgaspress) Europe’s cars, trucks, planes and ships are still overwhelmingly dependent on oil. This is terrible for the climate but it also leaves the continent dependent on imports from abroad and at the mercy of autocrats and oil cartels.

The US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 triggered the sharpest spike in crude oil prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. By 23 March, EU pump prices had reached €2.06/L for diesel and €1.89/L for petrol — up 49 and 27 cents per litre respectively on the pre-conflict period. Filling a 55-litre diesel tank now costs almost €27 more than before the conflict began.

The same dynamic was observed in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU drivers paid a collective geopolitical premium of around €55 billion over the course of the year. Oil companies — particularly refiners — did not simply pass on higher input costs, their margins expanded. EU refining profits tripled between 2021 and 2022.

If current conditions are maintained until the end of 2026, this analysis estimates excess profit would be generated across the road fuel supply chain — €24 billion accruing to refiners and distributors operating largely within the EU, and €45 billion flowing to crude oil producers and oil-producing nations. The methodological note sets out the analytical approach, key assumptions, and where the estimates are likely to over- or understate reality.

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