Wood Mackenzie report projects New LNG supply wave will halve European gas prices by 2030

16 Jan Wood Mackenzie report projects New LNG supply wave will halve European gas prices by 2030

(Oilandgaspress) A wave of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply could reverse a decade of European industrial decline, cutting annual energy costs by €39 billion by 2032 and delivering cumulative savings of €180 billion, equivalent to 1% of EU’s current GDP according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest Horizons report.

European industrial natural gas and power demand declined by 21% and 4%, respectively, since 2021. But Europe’s sluggish economy could get a material lift from lower energy costs. Based on Wood Mackenzie’s industrial price forecasts and assuming government taxes remain broadly similar, projected cumulative savings are equivalent to 19% of today’s total gas and electricity expenditure. Savings would provide relief to energy-intensive industries battered by record energy prices, supply-chain disruptions and ambitious decarbonization targets.

Rather than political intervention, which has had mixed success, it is the end of high energy prices that may ultimately provide the greatest relief for Europe’s industrial sectors

Wood Mackenzie forecasts European traded gas prices will almost halve by 2030, compared to 2025 levels, as global LNG supply grows faster than demand, and despite prices will recover thereafter, they will still trade at an average of €24/MWh (US$8/mmbtu) in the 2030- 2035 period. Prices could fall further still should a meaningful return of Russian gas to Europe materialise.

Growth in LNG supply and data centres in the US will boost local gas demand by almost 40% in the next 10 years, lifting domestic Henry Hub prices to an average US$4.9/mmbtu (€15/MWh) in the 2030-2035 period, an almost 50% increase from 2025 levels. Effectively, US LNG supply growth will come at a cost to US consumers and benefit those in Europe.

Taxes, infrastructure costs and renewable energy subsidies will offset part of the wholesale price reductions. Even so, the scale of wholesale gas and electricity price reduction is substantial. European industrial users will see gas costs reduce sharply, narrowing the competitive gap to the US and moving closer to China, where prices are expected to remain relatively flat

Information Source: Read More

Oilandgaspress ,Oil and Gas , Energy , Climate, Gas,Renewable, Sustainability, Oil Price, LPG, Solar, Wind,